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Publications: (complete list in vita)
The more complex four-way relationship between atmospheric CO2, CO2 emissions, water vapor, and temperature is typically taken to be beyond the reach of simple analysis, necessitating analysis by complex computer models such as those in the CMIP5 project.
These models suffer from a lack of transparency and a surfeit of parameters. The former makes them hard to audit, while the latter weakens the constraints imposed on the model by the data, resulting in a surfeit of explanations of the data.
In our one-page paper Claim: Recent climate change is manmade we reduce some 500 climate datapoints, namely annual atmospheric CO2, global land temperature, and CO2 emissions for 1851-2019, to a 2x5 table and show how these 10 numbers support the claim in the title.
In particular a common objection is that, by comparison with water vapor as the main greenhouse gas, CO2 is a mere trace gas that therefore cannot have as much impact on climate as claimed by climate scientists. Agreeing in our paper that CO2 is indeed a trace gas, we show that the claimed impact on climate is not only entirely consistent with the much greater impact of water vapor on climate but even quantitatively so to within 20%. Water vapor indeed has a huge impact, and it would be fatal to life on Earth were CO2 to rise to a level where it had anywhere near the same impact as water vapor.
Another common objection is that ``climate is always changing.'' The analysis in our paper shows that the changes attributable to rising greenhouse gases dwarf changes from all other causes of climate change.
Yet another common objection is that the rising CO2 is caused by the observed rise in temperature. Our 2x5 table addresses this objection with data showing that we emit substantially more CO2 than is accumulating in the atmosphere, making other explanations for rising CO2 entirely unnecessary.
Abstract: IPCC's estimates of global climate in 2100 vary widely. We exploit an uncertainty principle for climate that trades off precision in time for precision in temperature. Assuming continuation of events, cycles, and trends since 1850, we obtain a usefully precise estimate of the extent of warming averaged over the 65 years within 32 years of 2100, namely 3.0-3.2 °C above preindustrial and 2.1-2.3 °C above today. Those who view the glass as half full can look forward to half of that period (suitably weighted) being colder than that while glass-half-empty types will be more focused on the other half. Variability in phase and duration of most cycles and events in modern climate makes it difficult to say which specific years will be the hotter ones.
My AGU19 poster on a closely related topic can be seen here.
April 18: My first tweet, attempting to explain quantum computing "better than [Canadian Prime Minister] Justin Trudeau". (Whereas the state space of 3 bits is a 3-dimensional space with 0-1-valued coordinates, the state space of 3 qubits is an 8-dimensional space with complex-valued coordinates.)
October 9: Algebras and Bialgebras via Categories with Distinguished Objects, AMS Western Section Meeting, Denver, Colorado.
November 2: Harmonic Predictive Control as a Variant of PID Control, tRFMO Model Strategy Evaluation Working Group, International Commission for the Conservation of Atlantic Tuna, Madrid, Spain.
December 17: A Centrifugal Volcanism Mechanism for the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation . Poster, Global Environmental Change session GC13G, American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2016, Moscone Hall, San Francisco.
May 26: Euclid's Elements as an Equational Theory. Seminar, Mathematics Dept., University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia.
August 21: Aristotle, Boole, and Chu: Duality since 350 BC. Plenary talk, George Boole Mathematical Sciences Conference, Cork, Ireland. (Conference in honour of Boole's 200th birthday.)
October 12: Aristotle, Boole, and Categories. Invited paper, Parikh Festschrift, 2015.
December 17: Model Complexity of Global Climate: Could Arrhenius have foreseen the hiatus? . Poster, Global Environmental Change session GC43C, American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2015, Moscone Hall, San Francisco.
July 18: Weiner's Repetition Finder. Invited talk, 24th Annual Conference on Combinatorial Pattern Matching, session "1973 + 40 = 2013", Bad Herrenalb, Germany.
December 13: Reconciling multidecadal land-sea global temperature with rising CO2. Talk, SWIRL session GC53C "Understanding 400 ppm Climate: Past, Present and Future", American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2013, Moscone Hall, San Francisco. See also video of oral presentation.
December 4: Multidecadal climate to within a millikelvin. Poster, Global Environmental Change session GC23C, American Geophysical Union Fall meeting 2012, San Francisco.
February 15: The Logic of Global Warming. Seminar, TATA Institute of Fundamental Research, Mumbai, India.
February 15: Euclidean and non-Euclidean algebra. Seminar, TATA Institute of Fundamental Research, Mumbai, India.
June 14: Euclidean and non-Euclidean algebra.
Seminar, Maths Colloquium, Macquarie University, Sydney, Australia
June 16: Linear Process Algebra. Colloquium, National Information and Communications Technology Australia (NICTA), Sydney, Australia.
June 17: Linear Process Algebra. Seminar, School of Information Technology, University of Sydney, Australia.
June 23: The Logic of Global Warming. Seminar, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia
July 23: Structure from sorts, properties, and composition: A minimalist approach to topoalgebraic structure. Talk, International Conference on Category Theory, UBC, Vancouver, Canada.
October 11: Linear Process Algebra. Math & CS Colloquium, Santa Clara University, CA.
December 8: A three-component analytic model of long-term climate change . Poster, Global Environmental Change session GC43B, American Geophysical Union Fall meeting 2011, San Francisco.
April 9: Presketches. Talk, IRCAM, Paris, France.
April 13: Presketches. Seminar, Institute for Information, Logic, and Computation (IILC), University of Amsterdam, Netherlands.
June 2: Topological algebra based on sorts and properties as free and cofree universes. Talk, Conference BLAST 2010, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado.
June 5: Geodesic spaces : momentum :: Groups : symmetry. Talk, Conference BLAST 2010, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado.
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CURRICULUM VITAE Publications: (complete list in vita) |
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